Wary Turks stock up - and wait for war

By STEPHAN FARIS
SPECIAL TO THE NEWS
Wednesday, February 26th, 2003

SILOPI, Turkey - With Iraq just 6 miles from this border town - and the fear of a biochemical attack hanging in the air - no one here really wants war.

People are sealing their windows with plastic and digging makeshift bomb shelters. And those who can afford to are getting out of Dodge.

But for some, just the talk of war has led to the biggest economic boon they've seen in more than a decade.

Just look inside Abidin Akbas' flour mill, where 110-pound sacks of wheat lie stacked a dozen deep.

Akbas used to grind 100 sacks a day. Now he is doing 500, and his staff has doubled to four from two.

"Since the people started talking war, we've been so busy," Akbas, 36, told the Daily News.

His customers are stockpiling food in preparation for an American-led attack on Iraq.

The area also is awaiting tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers once the Turkish parliament gives its long-delayed final go-ahead, which is expected to come any day.

A 30-year-old businessman who gave his name as Nihat said he and his neighbors in this town of 60,000 have stocked enough rice, beans, flour and fuel to feed the 25 people in his building for a month.

They also have installed a television to follow the war's progress.

"In 1991, we moved to other cities, but now, because of the economic crisis, we can't do that," Nihat said, referring to the 1991 Gulf War.

Weighing the costs

The thinking in Turkey has turned toward how to make the best of a war if it is inevitable.

"Make no mistake, a war is bad. It will be terrible for Turkey," said Soli Ozel, editor of the Turkish edition of Foreign Policy magazine and a Middle East specialist at Istanbul's Bilgi University. "But if we can't stop it, then the question becomes, 'Are the costs of staying out of this heavier than the costs being part of it?'"

The Turkish government has made the best of it by withholding permission for 62,000 U.S. troops to mass along its 200-mile border with Iraq until it got guarantees for $26 billion in aid. It had wanted $32 billion.

The government finally urged parliament yesterday to approve the American deployment, and a vote is expected soon.

The Turks know that by cooperating with the U.S. in opening a northern front, the war likely would be shorter and cleaner.

For the people of Silopi, the economic benefits would come more quickly - especially if an American victory led to the lifting of sanctions.

"Before 1991, I was a driver," said Akbas. "I was going to Iraq. I was making good money. Maybe after this war, people will be enjoying the same things."

Still, for most, the negative impact still outweighs the postive.

Standing outside his factory, with the Iraqi mountains behind him, Akbas said he is convinced Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein would strike at Turkey if he felt cornered.

"If we are bombed, it won't change anything to have flour," said Akbas. "We will need masks for the chemicals."

The Americans, he added, should send them.

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